2024-12-11
Google's parent company, Alphabet, on Dec 9, 2024, announced a significant breakthrough in quantum computing with the
introduction of their new quantum chip called Willow.
This chip can solve complex
computations in just five minutes that would take classical supercomputers 10
septillion years.
One of the major challenges in quantum
computing has been error rates with qubits (quantum bits), but Willow has
managed to reduce these errors exponentially as more qubits are used.
This advancement is expected to make advancements in fields like science, medicine, and finance.
Google's quantum computing chip,
Willow, does not currently pose a direct threat to Bitcoin or other
cryptocurrencies. While quantum computing has the potential to disrupt
classical cryptographic methods in the long term, Willow's capabilities remain
far from the scale needed to compromise crypto encryption. Here's why:
Qubit Count and Error Correction
Limitations
Willow uses 105 qubits, a
substantial advancement in quantum technology. However, estimates suggest that 13
million qubits would be required to break Bitcoin’s encryption (e.g.,
cracking SHA-256 or ECDSA) within 24 hours.
Google’s team has made significant
progress in error correction, achieving exponential error reduction, but
large-scale, error-free quantum computation is still years or decades away.
Targeting Bitcoin's Security
Bitcoin relies on SHA-256 for
mining and ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) for
signing transactions.
Breaking ECDSA encryption would require
a sufficiently large, error-corrected quantum computer, capable of solving the discrete
logarithm problem efficiently. Willow’s current computational power is far
below this threshold.
Quantum computers, including Willow,
are optimized for specific problems, such as factoring large numbers or solving
complex optimization problems. These breakthroughs do not translate to a
universal ability to brute-force cryptographic keys or hash functions.
Breaking SHA-256 or ECDSA requires not
only scale but also algorithms like Shor’s algorithm to run efficiently on a
quantum machine. The required hardware and software integration are far from
mature.
The crypto community is already
exploring post-quantum cryptography, which leverages algorithms designed to
resist quantum attacks. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, for example, has
outlined potential solutions like blockchain hard forks to address quantum
risks.
While theoretical risks exist, the
timeline for a quantum computer capable of breaking crypto encryption is likely
measured in decades, not years.
Leaders like David Marcus emphasize the
importance of accelerating the adoption of quantum-resistant technologies, even
if immediate threats are minimal.
Hartmut Neven, Founder and Lead of
Google Quantum AI, believes quantum computing will revolutionize industries,
much like AI. He emphasizes that future AI systems will require quantum
capabilities for tasks like modeling quantum systems, optimizing architectures,
and analyzing complex datasets.
